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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Atletico-MG 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortaleza EC beat Atletico-MG 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.15 xG and Atletico-MG 0.93 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico-MG landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.78 / defence 1.17 against Atletico-MG attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 30% | Atletico-MG 29%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 47%, Atletico-MG 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Atletico-MG's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.44 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights