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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 35

Kick-off

Sun 30 Nov 2025

21:30

Venue

Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Fortaleza EC Win

41%

Fortaleza EC

2.44

30%

Draw

3.35

29%

Atletico-MG

3.42

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.4%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.4%

Draw

0 – 0

12.5%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.15

Fortaleza EC xG

Total xG

2.08

0.93

Atletico-MG xG

41%
30%
29%
Fortaleza ECDrawAtletico-MG

2.44

41%

Home win

3.35

30%

Draw

3.42

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

61%

Over 1.5

1.64

39%

Under 1.5

2.56

34%

Over 2.5

2.94

66%

Under 2.5

1.52

16%

Over 3.5

6.25

84%

Under 3.5

1.19

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.42

59%

BTTS No

1.70

Clean Sheet

40%

Fortaleza EC

2.52

32%

Atletico-MG

3.17

Win to Nil

16%

Fortaleza EC

6.17

9%

Atletico-MG

10.84

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.5 11.6 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 14.4 13.4 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 8.3 7.7 3.6 1.1 0.3
3 3.2 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.153
λ Away (xG) 0.926
Total xG 2.079
League avg home goals 1.496
League avg away goals 1.003
Fortaleza EC attack strength 0.778
Fortaleza EC defence strength 1.167
Atletico-MG attack strength 0.790
Atletico-MG defence strength 0.990
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 73 / 73