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Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Sport Recife 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Sport Recife 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.53 xG and Sport Recife 0.67 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Sport Recife attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 56% | Draw 31% | Sport Recife 14%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights