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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Fluminense run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Sao Paulo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Sao Paulo 6-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.42 xG and Sao Paulo 0.64 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.97 / defence 0.68 against Sao Paulo attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 56% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 17%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 33%, Sao Paulo 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sao Paulo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.38 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights