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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Fluminense 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Fluminense 1-2 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.06 xG and Palmeiras 1.18 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Palmeiras attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 32% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 39%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 29%, Palmeiras 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Palmeiras's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fluminense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights