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Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Mirassol 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Mirassol 1-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.35 xG and Mirassol 0.73 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.95 / defence 0.73 against Mirassol attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 52% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 20%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 39%, Mirassol 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Mirassol's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.52 PPG, Mirassol 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights