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Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Gremio 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Gremio 1-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.44 xG and Gremio 1.02 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Gremio attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 46% | Draw 27% | Gremio 26%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 32%, Gremio 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Gremio's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.25 PPG, Gremio 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights