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Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Cuiaba 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.97 xG and Cuiaba 0.61 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against Cuiaba attack 0.67 / defence 0.88, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 42% | Draw 38% | Cuiaba 21%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 36%, Cuiaba 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cuiaba's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.30 PPG, Cuiaba 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights