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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Ceara 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Ceara 1-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.16 xG and Ceara 0.58 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 0.75 against Ceara attack 0.79 / defence 0.87, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 50% | Draw 32% | Ceara 19%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 41%, Ceara 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ceara's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.52 PPG, Ceara 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights