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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Botafogo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Botafogo 2-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.76 xG and Botafogo 1.25 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Botafogo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Botafogo attack 1.19 / defence 0.66, drawn from 60/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 22% | Draw 30% | Botafogo 48%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 33%, Botafogo 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Botafogo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Fluminense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights