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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 8-0 hammering of Vitoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Vitoria 8-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.53 xG and Vitoria 0.47 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 8-0 for 8 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 6.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.28 / defence 0.60 against Vitoria attack 0.70 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 64% | Draw 25% | Vitoria 11%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 49%, Vitoria 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Vitoria's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Vitoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 8 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights