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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama finished level at 1-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.48 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.99 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.54 / defence 0.65 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.40 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 70% | Draw 17% | Vasco DA Gama 13%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 48%, Vasco DA Gama 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights