Flamengo 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Flamengo in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Flamengo against 1.70 for Palmeiras. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Flamengo lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Flamengo — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Palmeiras 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 55% | Palmeiras 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.52 xG and Palmeiras 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.186 / defence 0.958 | Palmeiras attack 1.068 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 0.928. Data: 40 Flamengo games / 40 Palmeiras games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 51% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 24%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Palmeiras 4.17. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 20% | Palmeiras 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 51% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Flamengo 1.52 / Palmeiras 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.186 / def 0.958 | Palmeiras attack 1.068 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.452 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Palmeiras xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Flamengo 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Flamengo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Palmeiras part of?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 51% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Flamengo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Palmeiras in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.19x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.07x) against Flamengo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.87
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.47
0.95
Palmeiras xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
19.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.95 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 8D 9L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.74 PPG from 38 outings (20W 6D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Flamengo against 1.74 for Palmeiras. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Flamengo's home form reads 13W 1D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.53 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 20W 6D 12L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Palmeiras away?
Flamengo's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.11 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
5
Draws
1
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Palmeiras have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 32%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 53% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Flamengo have failed to score in 26% of games; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Flamengo's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 53% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Flamengo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 4, as Flamengo and Palmeiras drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.52 xG and Palmeiras 0.95 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Palmeiras landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Palmeiras attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 51% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 24%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, Palmeiras 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.87 PPG, Palmeiras 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.