Ceara 0-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ceara at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ceara vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ceara host RB Bragantino at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ceara — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ceara's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
RB Bragantino's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Ceara have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ceara, 0 for RB Bragantino and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ceara in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 53% versus RB Bragantino 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 40% | RB Bragantino 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.47 xG and RB Bragantino 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.918 / defence 1.205 | RB Bragantino attack 1.173 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.928. Data: 40 Ceara games / 41 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 41% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 34%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | RB Bragantino 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ceara are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 40% | RB Bragantino 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 41% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Ceara 1.47 / RB Bragantino 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.918 / def 1.205 | RB Bragantino attack 1.173 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Ceara (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.31
RB Bragantino xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Ceara vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs RB Bragantino?
Ceara 0 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Ceara vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs RB Bragantino part of?
Ceara vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 41% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ceara and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and RB Bragantino?
Record (2 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 2 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Ceara and RB Bragantino in?
Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.92) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
41%
2.44
25%
3.95
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.78
1.31
RB Bragantino xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ceara and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ceara and 1.31 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Ceara have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 11W 17D 10L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 14W 14D 10L from 38 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.32 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ceara have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (10W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ceara are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.45 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 11W 17D 10L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 14W 14D 10L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or RB Bragantino away?
Ceara's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.95 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Ceara or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and RB Bragantino runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ceara's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ceara
4
Draws
1
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and RB Bragantino?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Ceara 1-0 RB Bragantino.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ceara see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 53%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ceara) and 53% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ceara's recent matches and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ceara's recent games and 53% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Ceara 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Ceara 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.47 xG and RB Bragantino 1.31 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ceara fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.92 / defence 1.21 against RB Bragantino attack 1.17 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 41% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 34%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 40%, RB Bragantino 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.32 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.