📋

Poisson rates Palmeiras at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Palmeiras host Chapecoense-sc at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Palmeiras's home record at Allianz Parque: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.

Head to Head

Palmeiras hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Chapecoense-sc, with 1 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Palmeiras winning.

The historical record gives Palmeiras a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Season Statistics

Palmeiras's full-season record stands at 23W 7D 8L from 38 games. Attacking returns: 1.7 goals per game; defensive: 0.9 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 15 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 38 games (26%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.13 reds per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.75 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.024 / defence 0.818 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.719 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.133. Data: 55 Palmeiras games / 16 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Palmeiras 63% | Draw 23% | Chapecoense-sc 13%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Chapecoense-sc 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights