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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Palmeiras 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Palmeiras 3-2 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.60 xG and Palmeiras 0.83 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.27 / defence 0.67 against Palmeiras attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 56% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 19%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 48%, Palmeiras 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Palmeiras's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.97 PPG, Palmeiras 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights