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Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Mirassol 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Mirassol 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.52 xG and Mirassol 0.60 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.30 / defence 0.59 against Mirassol attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 14%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 38%, Mirassol 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time, and conceded here.

Mirassol's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.75. Form held, and they took the win. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mirassol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights