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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Juventude 6-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.57 xG and Juventude 0.96 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juventude landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Juventude attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Juventude 21%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Juventude 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights