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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Flamengo and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 22, as Flamengo and Gremio drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.42 xG and Gremio 0.63 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.69 / defence 0.57 against Gremio attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 77% | Draw 15% | Gremio 8%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 50%, Gremio 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Gremio's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights