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Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Fluminense 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.81 xG and Fluminense 0.70 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.46 / defence 0.70 against Fluminense attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 64% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 14%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 48%, Fluminense 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fluminense's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights