🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Flamengo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo and Cruzeiro finished level at 0-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.41 xG and Cruzeiro 0.72 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.41 / defence 0.69 against Cruzeiro attack 1.01 / defence 0.73, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 54% | Draw 27% | Cruzeiro 19%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 48%, Cruzeiro 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cruzeiro's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Flamengo 2.00 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights