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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Corinthians.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Corinthians 4-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.04 xG and Corinthians 0.86 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Corinthians landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.39 / defence 0.97 against Corinthians attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 62% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 12%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Corinthians 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights