Flamengo 0-0 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Botafogo at Estádio do Maracanã in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Flamengo at Estádio do Maracanã this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Flamengo at 1.90 PPG versus Botafogo's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 2, Botafogo 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Botafogo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 57% versus Botafogo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Botafogo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.46 xG and Botafogo 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.328 / defence 0.813 | Botafogo attack 0.763 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 0.829. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Botafogo's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Flamengo games / 46 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 60% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 12%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.67 | Draw 3.57 | Botafogo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (60%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Botafogo's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 60% | Botafogo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 60% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 32% | xG Flamengo 1.46 / Botafogo 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.328 / def 0.813 | Botafogo attack 0.763 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.434 / away 0.829 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Botafogo xG
32%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Botafogo kick off?
Flamengo vs Botafogo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Flamengo 0 - 0 Botafogo.
Where is Flamengo vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Botafogo part of?
Flamengo vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 60% chance of winning, Botafogo a 12% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Flamengo and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Botafogo?
Record (6 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 4W.
What form are Flamengo and Botafogo in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Botafogo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.33) and Botafogo's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 2-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
60%
1.67
28%
3.55
12%
8.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Flamengo xG
Total xG
1.97
0.51
Botafogo xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
8.25
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.16
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
60%
1.67
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
3%
35.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 20.3 | 10.4 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.51 for Botafogo, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 39W 19D 18L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Botafogo's form line: 41W 20D 15L from 76 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.79 PPG, Botafogo on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.92 PPG from 38 outings (21W 10D 7L).
On the road, Botafogo have gone 18W 11D 9L from 38 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.54 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 39W 19D 18L in their last 76 games (1.79 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 41W 20D 15L in their last 76 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Botafogo away?
Flamengo's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.92 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Botafogo in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Botafogo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2024, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
1
Draws
4
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Botafogo?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Botafogo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Flamengo 3-0 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Botafogo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 53%, Botafogo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Botafogo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Botafogo tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Flamengo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 9, as Flamengo and Botafogo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.46 xG and Botafogo 0.51 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.33 / defence 0.81 against Botafogo attack 0.76 / defence 0.77, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 60% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 12%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Botafogo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.79 PPG, Botafogo 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.