Cuiaba vs Flamengo – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Cuiaba 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Cuiaba 1-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.93 xG and Flamengo 1.22 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.75 / defence 0.98 against Flamengo attack 1.27 / defence 0.93, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 28% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 43%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 38%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cuiaba's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Flamengo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights