Cuiaba vs Flamengo – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.75) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.27x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
28%
3.55
29%
3.43
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.15
1.22
Flamengo xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.22 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.