Cruzeiro 1-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cruzeiro and Sport Recife meet at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 October 2025 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cruzeiro have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cruzeiro have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cruzeiro are significantly better at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto than their overall form suggests.
Sport Recife's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Cruzeiro's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sport Recife's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cruzeiro, 0 for Sport Recife and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 4–0 with Cruzeiro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cruzeiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Sport Recife goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 42% versus Sport Recife 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 46% | Sport Recife 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.83 xG and Sport Recife 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.182 / defence 0.930 | Sport Recife attack 0.675 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.023. Data: 64 Cruzeiro games / 24 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 66% | Draw 22% | Sport Recife 12%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Sport Recife 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Cruzeiro (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cruzeiro 70% | Sport Recife 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Monday 6 Oct 2025, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 66% | Draw 22% | Sport Recife 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 40% | xG Cruzeiro 1.83 / Sport Recife 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.182 / def 0.930 | Sport Recife attack 0.675 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Sport Recife xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 6 October 2025 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife?
Cruzeiro 1 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife part of?
Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 66% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cruzeiro and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Sport Recife?
Record (1 meetings): Cruzeiro 1W | Draws 0 | Sport Recife 0W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Sport Recife in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cruzeiro's attack rating (1.18) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sport Recife's attack (0.68x) against Cruzeiro's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 64/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.63
12%
8.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.48
0.64
Sport Recife xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
8.09
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
35%
2.88
2%
50.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.64 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Cruzeiro have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 14W 6D 4L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sport Recife's form line: 2W 9D 13L from 24 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cruzeiro are the form team by 1.38 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sport Recife.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cruzeiro have posted 2.33 PPG from 12 outings (9W 1D 2L).
On the road, Sport Recife have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.75 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 14W 6D 4L in their last 24 games (2.00 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 2W 9D 13L in their last 24 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Sport Recife away?
Cruzeiro's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 2.33 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cruzeiro
1
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Sport Recife?
From 2 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 1, Sport Recife have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Cruzeiro 1-1 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Sport Recife?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 58%, Sport Recife 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Cruzeiro) and 42% (Sport Recife). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sport Recife in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 42% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Cruzeiro's matches and 42% of Sport Recife's.
Do Cruzeiro and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro and Sport Recife share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 27, as Cruzeiro and Sport Recife drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.83 xG and Sport Recife 0.64 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cruzeiro fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.18 / defence 0.93 against Sport Recife attack 0.68 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 66% | Draw 22% | Sport Recife 12%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 46%, Sport Recife 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Sport Recife's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cruzeiro arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.