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Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Cruzeiro 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Cruzeiro 1-2 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.02 xG and Palmeiras 1.10 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Palmeiras attack 1.18 / defence 0.84, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 31% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 35%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 35%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cruzeiro's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Palmeiras's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights