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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cruzeiro edge out Mirassol 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro beat Mirassol 2-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.56 xG and Mirassol 0.88 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Mirassol attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 53% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 21%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights