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Dominant Cruzeiro run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gremio.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro beat Gremio 4-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.62 xG and Gremio 0.79 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cruzeiro beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.13 / defence 0.82 against Gremio attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 56% | Draw 26% | Gremio 17%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 44%, Gremio 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cruzeiro's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Gremio's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.52 PPG, Gremio 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights