Cruzeiro 1-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cruzeiro host Gremio at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 28 November 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cruzeiro — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Cruzeiro have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cruzeiro at 0.90 PPG versus Gremio's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cruzeiro, 1 for Gremio and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2024, ended 2–0 with Cruzeiro winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Gremio in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 35% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 36% | Gremio 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.17 xG and Gremio 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.925 / defence 0.899 | Gremio attack 0.977 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.011. Data: 72 Cruzeiro games / 72 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 41% | Draw 32% | Gremio 27%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Gremio 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cruzeiro 50% | Gremio 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 41% | Draw 32% | Gremio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Cruzeiro 1.17 / Gremio 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.925 / def 0.899 | Gremio attack 0.977 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gremio xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Gremio kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Gremio kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 28 November 2024 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Cruzeiro 1 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Gremio part of?
Cruzeiro vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 41% chance of winning, Gremio a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cruzeiro and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Gremio?
Record (3 meetings): Cruzeiro 2W | Draws 0 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Gremio in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Gremio (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 0.93x the league average against Gremio's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.12
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.06
0.89
Gremio xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.89 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Cruzeiro have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 24W 22D 26L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 32W 12D 28L from 72 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.31 PPG, Gremio on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cruzeiro have posted 1.50 PPG from 36 outings (14W 12D 10L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 10W 8D 18L from 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.43 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Gremio in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 24W 22D 26L in their last 72 games (1.31 PPG), while Gremio have gone 32W 12D 28L in their last 72 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Gremio away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.50 PPG; Gremio away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Gremio in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cruzeiro go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Gremio won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Cruzeiro
1
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Gremio?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 5, Gremio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Cruzeiro 2-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Gremio?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 44%, Gremio 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cruzeiro) and 61% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 36% of games; Gremio in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 58% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 61% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Gremio tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gremio in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro and Gremio finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.17 xG and Gremio 0.89 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Gremio attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 41% | Draw 32% | Gremio 27%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 36%, Gremio 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.31 PPG, Gremio 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.