🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Cruzeiro's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro and Fluminense finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.85 xG and Fluminense 0.84 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cruzeiro fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Fluminense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Fluminense attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 16%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 43%, Fluminense 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cruzeiro's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fluminense's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.64 PPG, Fluminense 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights