Cruzeiro 1-2 Coritiba – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cruzeiro face Coritiba.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cruzeiro and Coritiba meet at Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 February 2026 at 00:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cruzeiro have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Cruzeiro have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Coritiba edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Cruzeiro 0–1 Coritiba — a Coritiba win.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.92 xG and Coritiba 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.035 / defence 0.906 | Coritiba attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.077. Data: built from Cruzeiro's last 39 games and Coritiba's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 63% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 15%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.59 | Draw 4.60 | Coritiba 6.50. The model has a clear lean to Cruzeiro (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's sample (Cruzeiro 39 games, Coritiba 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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