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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cruzeiro run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bahia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro beat Bahia 3-0 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.64 xG and Bahia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cruzeiro beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bahia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Bahia attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 48% | Draw 29% | Bahia 23%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 36%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.30 PPG, Bahia 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights