Criciuma vs Flamengo – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Criciuma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Criciuma 0-3 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 0.93 xG and Flamengo 1.61 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Criciuma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Flamengo attack 1.21 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Criciuma 20% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 52%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 53%, Flamengo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Criciuma's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Flamengo's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Criciuma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights