Criciuma vs Flamengo – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Criciuma's attack at 0.82x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Criciuma's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
20%
4.94
28%
3.60
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.54
1.61
Flamengo xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
24.75
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.61 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.