Coritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coritiba at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Coritiba welcome Chapecoense-sc to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 August 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's home record at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Coritiba are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Coritiba, 0 for Chapecoense-sc and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chapecoense-sc in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 45% versus Chapecoense-sc 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 45% | Chapecoense-sc 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.39 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.857 / defence 1.190 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.749 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.112. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Coritiba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Coritiba games / 20 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 44% | Draw 32% | Chapecoense-sc 25%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Chapecoense-sc 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coritiba at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 50% | Chapecoense-sc 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 44% | Draw 32% | Chapecoense-sc 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Coritiba 1.39 / Chapecoense-sc 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.857 / def 1.190 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.749 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Chapecoense-sc xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Coritiba 2 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 44% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 1 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
44%
2.28
32%
3.17
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.38
0.99
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.99 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coritiba come into this having played 20 games, going 7W 6D 7L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chapecoense-sc sit at 0.50 PPG from 20 outings (1W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coritiba's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Chapecoense-sc have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coritiba are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.95 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 7D 12L in their last 20 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Coritiba's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.33 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Coritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Chapecoense-sc see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 56%, Chapecoense-sc 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Coritiba and 33% for Chapecoense-sc.
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Chapecoense-sc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Coritiba's recent matches and 44% of Chapecoense-sc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Coritiba's recent games and 33% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coritiba edge out Chapecoense-sc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Chapecoense-sc 2-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.39 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.99 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.75 / defence 1.21, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 44% | Draw 32% | Chapecoense-sc 25%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 45%, Chapecoense-sc 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coritiba arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.