Bahia 0-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bahia at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Vasco DA Gama travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bahia at 1.20 PPG versus Vasco DA Gama's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Bahia have won 4, Vasco DA Gama 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 55% versus Vasco DA Gama 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Vasco DA Gama 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.69 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.073 / defence 0.924 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.930 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.119. Data: 59 Bahia games / 58 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 53% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 19%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Vasco DA Gama 5.26. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 70% | Vasco DA Gama 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 53% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Bahia 1.69 / Vasco DA Gama 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.073 / def 0.924 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.930 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Bahia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Vasco DA Gama xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia 0 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 53% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bahia and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (7 meetings): Bahia 4W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 2W.
What form are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama in?
Bahia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.07) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.55
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.65
0.96
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
28.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bahia and 0.96 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bahia come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 16D 17L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.14 PPG from 58 outings (18W 12D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bahia's home form reads 18W 6D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.75 points per game from 28 outings (5W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.34 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 25W 16D 17L in their last 58 games (1.57 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 18W 12D 28L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Bahia's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.14 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bahia or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bahia's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bahia
2
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
From 8 meetings on record, Bahia have won 4, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Bahia 0-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 54%, Vasco DA Gama 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 61% (Vasco DA Gama). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bahia's recent matches and 54% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bahia's matches and 61% of Vasco DA Gama's.
Do Bahia and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bahia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia and Vasco DA Gama finished level at 0-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.69 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.96 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bahia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Vasco DA Gama landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 53% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 19%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Vasco DA Gama 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.