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Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Sport Recife 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Corinthians beat Sport Recife 2-1 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.80 xG and Sport Recife 0.73 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Sport Recife attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 61% | Draw 27% | Sport Recife 13%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights