Corinthians 2-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Neo Quimica Arena plays host to Corinthians versus Sport Recife in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Corinthians have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Neo Quimica Arena, Corinthians have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Corinthians 1W, Sport Recife 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Sport Recife winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.80 xG and Sport Recife 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.096 / defence 1.043 | Sport Recife attack 0.779 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 0.901. Data: 42 Corinthians games / 4 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 61% | Draw 27% | Sport Recife 13%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Sport Recife 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Corinthians as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Neo Quimica Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 61% | Draw 27% | Sport Recife 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Corinthians 1.80 / Sport Recife 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.096 / def 1.043 | Sport Recife attack 0.779 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.461 / away 0.901 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Sport Recife xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Sport Recife kick off?
Corinthians vs Sport Recife kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Neo Quimica Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Corinthians 2 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Corinthians vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Neo Quimica Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Sport Recife part of?
Corinthians vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 61% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Corinthians and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Sport Recife?
Record (2 meetings): Corinthians 1W | Draws 0 | Sport Recife 1W.
What form are Corinthians and Sport Recife in?
Corinthians (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Corinthians home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.10x the league average against Sport Recife's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sport Recife's attack (0.78x) against Corinthians's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
61%
1.64
27%
3.76
13%
7.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.54
0.73
Sport Recife xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
7.96
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
2%
48.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.73 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Pre-Season
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Corinthians
0
Draws
2
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 2, Sport Recife have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Sport Recife 1-0 Corinthians.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Sport Recife 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Sport Recife 2-1 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.80 xG and Sport Recife 0.73 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Sport Recife attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 61% | Draw 27% | Sport Recife 13%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.