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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sao Paulo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Corinthians beat Sao Paulo 3-1 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.19 xG and Sao Paulo 0.81 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.91 / defence 0.88 against Sao Paulo attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 45% | Draw 30% | Sao Paulo 25%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 46%, Sao Paulo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Sao Paulo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.38 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights