🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Corinthians 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Corinthians 1-2 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.27 xG and RB Bragantino 1.01 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. RB Bragantino outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against RB Bragantino attack 1.13 / defence 0.90, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 41% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 29%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 50%, RB Bragantino 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.44 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights