🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Corinthians at 41%, yet in-form RB Bragantino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Corinthians vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Corinthians host RB Bragantino at Neo Quimica Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 July 2025 at 23:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Corinthians — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Neo Quimica Arena, Corinthians have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Quimica Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Corinthians are significantly better at Neo Quimica Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.

RB Bragantino away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Bragantino — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Corinthians have won 2, RB Bragantino 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Corinthians trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

RB Bragantino trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 48% versus RB Bragantino 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 50% | RB Bragantino 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.27 xG and RB Bragantino 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.109 / defence 0.967 | RB Bragantino attack 1.133 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 0.921. Data: 50 Corinthians games / 50 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Corinthians 41% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 29%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | RB Bragantino 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Bragantino (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Corinthians 40% | RB Bragantino 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights