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Dominant Corinthians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mirassol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Corinthians beat Mirassol 3-0 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.10 xG and Mirassol 1.18 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mirassol landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Mirassol attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 34% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 38%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Corinthians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 40%, Mirassol 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Mirassol's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Corinthians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights