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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Corinthians and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Corinthians and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.59 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.74 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 58% | Draw 25% | Fortaleza EC 17%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 48%, Fortaleza EC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.41 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights