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Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Corinthians.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Corinthians 0-2 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.82 xG and Fluminense 0.74 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Corinthians fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Fluminense outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.28 / defence 0.89 against Fluminense attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 60% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 12%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 45%, Fluminense 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.39 PPG, Fluminense 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights