Corinthians 3-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Corinthians face Fluminense.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fluminense travel to Neo Química Arena to take on Corinthians in Serie A (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Corinthians — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Corinthians have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Fluminense have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Fluminense away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Corinthians 1.70 PPG, Fluminense 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Corinthians, 2 for Fluminense and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Corinthians 3–3 Fluminense — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 50% versus Fluminense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 37% | Fluminense 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Corinthians surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Fluminense have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.25 xG and Fluminense 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.890 / defence 0.911 | Fluminense attack 0.965 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.101. Data: built from Corinthians's last 41 games and Fluminense's last 41.
Result probabilities: Corinthians 43% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 29%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.33 | Draw 3.50 | Fluminense 3.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Corinthians 70% (last 10 home games) | Fluminense 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 43% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Corinthians 1.25 / Fluminense 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.890 / def 0.911 | Fluminense attack 0.965 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Fluminense xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Corinthians vs Fluminense FAQs
What time does Corinthians vs Fluminense kick off?
Corinthians vs Fluminense kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Fluminense?
Corinthians 3 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Corinthians vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Fluminense part of?
Corinthians vs Fluminense is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 43% chance of winning, Fluminense a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Corinthians and Fluminense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Corinthians vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Corinthians's attack rating (0.89) and Fluminense's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Corinthians's last 41 games and Fluminense's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.50
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.22
0.97
Fluminense xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
12.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Corinthians vs Fluminense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.97 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Corinthians have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 30W 25D 21L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 37W 15D 24L from 76 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.51 PPG, Fluminense on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 38 home games (18W 14D 6L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 12W 8D 18L from their last 38 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Corinthians are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.50 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
Corinthians (Home) vs Fluminense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Corinthians
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Corinthians vs Fluminense Form FAQs
What form are Corinthians and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 30W 25D 21L in their last 76 games (1.51 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 37W 15D 24L in their last 76 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Fluminense away?
Corinthians's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.79 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fluminense in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Jul 2022, when Fluminense won Fluminense 4-0 Corinthians.
Corinthians's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Corinthians
2
Draws
5
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Corinthians vs Fluminense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Fluminense?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Corinthians have won 3, Fluminense have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Fluminense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Corinthians 1-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 53%, Fluminense 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Corinthians) and 42% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Fluminense in 32%; Fluminense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Corinthians vs Fluminense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Corinthians and Fluminense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Corinthians's recent matches and 34% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Corinthians and Fluminense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Corinthians's recent games and 42% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Fluminense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Corinthians's recent matches and 68% of Fluminense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Corinthians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fluminense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Fluminense 3-0 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.25 xG and Fluminense 0.97 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fluminense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Fluminense attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 43% | Draw 29% | Fluminense 29%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 37%, Fluminense 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.51 PPG, Fluminense 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.