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Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Corinthians 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Corinthians 1-2 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 0.90 xG and Flamengo 1.29 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Flamengo attack 1.21 / defence 0.76, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 26% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 46%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 48%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Flamengo's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Corinthians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights