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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Corinthians 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat Corinthians 1-2 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.01 xG and Bahia 0.85 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bahia outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Bahia attack 0.87 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 38% | Draw 32% | Bahia 30%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 49%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Bahia's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.40 PPG, Bahia 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights