Corinthians vs Bahia – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Corinthians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bahia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Corinthians beat Bahia 3-0 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 2.35 xG and Bahia 1.24 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bahia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.41 / defence 1.04 against Bahia attack 1.15 / defence 1.24, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 61% | Draw 21% | Bahia 18%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 43%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Bahia's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.35 PPG, Bahia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights