Corinthians vs Bahia – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.41x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.78
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Corinthians xG
Total xG
3.59
1.24
Bahia xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
10%
10.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
2%
57.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.24 for Bahia, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.